Hi All,
In anticipation of the release of the early portions of the newsletters later this week for the upcoming rounds (AFL Round 20 and NRL Round 21), we have summarised the results below for the previous round and the other rounds covered this year as well.
As always, the profit on these positions can be extended by looking for relevant games to cover across multiple corporate bookmakers with promotions covering certain games. Our aim is always to WIN with every position, so these can always be staked without promotional coverage, though taking the bookies up on their offers gives us even more edge!
Quick interlude, we have our X account now operational, and would really appreciate a follow if you are on the platform. Our account is at the following link:
This week was a tough one across the board, with a -8.36 UNITS Negative variance on the Multi products, across both codes. A number of key players across the board failed to fire, in a very strange week in the AFL in particular. Multiple players performed significantly below their seasonal patterns, in very unexpected fashion. However, the strategy of using promotional offers where possible returned +7 UNITS in bonus returns, which offsets and real overall loss to the season totals. Again putting emphasis on this point:
If you have offers from the bookies, USE THEM. They are a part of the edge, and need to be factored in at all times.
We have used Unit sizes of $25 for these results, as everyone will be different. Keeping some uniformity!
Before that though...
Some musings again from the weekend past on some performances from individual players. It never ceases to amaze me what you can witness when you watch enough sports or racing in terms of the funny way things pan out from time to time! The research is GREAT, but probability is always going to play out when the rubber hits the road. Below were my favourites from the weekend:
1) The great AFL downturn - No less than 6 absolute superstars of the game decided to take a week off, with players like Clayton Oliver, Ed Richards etc. coming in between 7 to 10 possessions below their season averages, with most of them receiving no tagging at all. Very strange for long time watchers of the game. Again like a few weeks back, it is the equivalent to all of them essentially taking a quarter off from their usual production.
2) Adjusted Stats - this one worked in our favour. Nic Newman finished the game with 19 possessions, which had us at a loss on our position. The Champion Data team decided he actually got 20 on Monday, and adjusted the results. Small consolation for the Pendlebury scrubbed disposal a few weeks back. Proving once again, anything is negotiable.
Regardless, we push forward into the coming rounds with confidence that we are still maintaining a strong overall profit for the year, and that results like the weekend materialise once or twice a year and then usually correct quickly. Superstars have a habit of attracting the negative press, and it usually pushes them to better results in the following weeks.
We have updated the tables and graphs below with the results.
This Round:
Year To Date (Multis):
To clarify for the multi products, if our customers started with a bank of 17 units to cover their entire first round across both codes, there would have been a 84.35% growth on the initial bank in 17 weeks. Decent.
Adding in the use of Bet Returns if you have them available, and on an assumed 70% return of those bonus bets into actual cash (this is below what we get but being tough on the marking), there would have been a 438.47% growth on the initial bank in 17 weeks. Again, decent.
On a sample size over 250+ games now, this is a really good track record for the season. Let's keep it progressing.
Bring on the next rounds!
Cheers,
Game Day Edition Team